INTRODUCTION
"The recent unrest in Bangladesh began with small, peaceful protests but quickly escalated into widespread disruption, much like a crack in ice that rapidly expands." Triggered by anti-quota demonstrations, the situation intensified after students were reportedly attacked by the Bangladesh Chhatra League, affiliated with the ruling Awami League.
The protests, which initially began in January 2018 due to dissatisfaction with the quota system, resurfaced in June after the government reinstated the controversial quotas, sparking renewed unrest, allocating 30% of government jobs to families of freedom fighters. The system's reintroduction has faced criticism over fairness and potential exploitation.
In response, the government imposed an internet shutdown on July 17, and the Supreme Court briefly halted the quotas. The ongoing violence and economic instability may have broader implications, potentially affecting cross-border trade and security dynamics with India.
BACKGROUND
India and Bangladesh share a historically significant relationship, rooted in India's support for Bangladesh’s independence during the 1971 Liberation War. Despite early tensions over boundary disputes and water-sharing issues, relations improved notably under Sheikh Hasina’s leadership, marked by key agreements on water sharing and trade.
India remains Bangladesh’s largest trade partner, with bilateral trade reaching USD 18 billion in 2021-2022. The proposed Comprehensive Economic Partnership Agreement (CEPA) and potential Free Trade Agreement (FTA) highlight the strategic importance of this relationship.
However, recent political unrest in Bangladesh has introduced new challenges. The turmoil began in 2018 with student protests demanding reductions in government job quotas.
Although the government initially reduced quotas from 56% to 35%, the Supreme Court briefly reinstated the previous system. By 2024, the quota system was restructured to 44% merit-based jobs, 30% for freedom fighters’ families, 10% for backward districts, 10% for women, 5% for minorities, and 1% for people with disabilities.
This unrest, compounded by government corruption, led to Sheikh Hasina’s resignation and flight to India on August 5, 2024. Following her departure, Professor Muhammad Yunus became Chief Adviser of the interim government on August 8, 2024, and Retired Lieutenant General Abdul Hafiz was appointed as special assistant on security and national reconciliation, emphasising the interim government’s focus on stability and reform but the ongoing violence and economic instability in Bangladesh could impact cross-border trade and security dynamics with India, presenting new challenges for regional stability and economic interests. Consequently, the ongoing unrest in Bangladesh introduces several security concerns for India.
Bangladesh Instability: Security Risks
The ongoing unrest in Bangladesh introduces several security concerns for India. Border security is a primary concern due to the extensive and poorly monitored 4,000 km border between the two nations. The instability has led to increased illegal immigration, with reports suggesting traffickers charge between 10,000 and 20,000 rupees for unauthorised crossings. This underscores the urgent need for enhanced border security measures and improved surveillance.
In addition, the turmoil in Bangladesh heightens the risk of terrorism and extremism. Extremist groups might exploit the instability, potentially escalating terrorist activities within India. To counteract this, strengthening counter-terrorism strategies and fostering regional intelligence collaboration are essential.
Furthermore, the unrest could impact internal security in India, potentially exacerbating existing challenges and affecting national stability. Therefore, it is crucial to develop comprehensive contingency plans and reinforce security protocols to address these emerging threats effectively.
Crisis Costs: Economic Impact of Bangladesh Unrest
In parallel, the ongoing unrest in Bangladesh presents significant economic risks to India, particularly in terms of trade disruptions. The instability has already caused substantial interruptions, as evidenced by the long queues of trucks at the North 24 Parganas checkpoint in West Bengal, which connects to Benapole in Bangladesh.
This route accounts for 30% of India's land trade with Bangladesh, facilitating the export of various goods, from cotton to essential food supplies and crude oil. The recent unrest severely hampered these supplies, with some checkpoints only reopening in the last 24 hours. Despite the gradual resumption of trade, the disruption has been profound, inflicting large-scale losses on both economies.
For example, Bangladesh's garment industry, which constitutes 90% of the country's exports, was hit hard. Factory closures led to a significant loss of production—228,000 pieces and $17,000 in one factory alone during the six-day shutdown. These trade disruptions highlight the vulnerability of supply chains that depend on Bangladeshi goods, potentially leading to increased operational costs and delays in production schedules for Indian businesses.
Moreover, the ongoing instability poses a risk to foreign direct investment (FDI) in
Bangladesh, as companies might reconsider their strategies in light of the volatile environment. To mitigate these risks, businesses should diversify their supply chains, explore alternative markets, and strengthen relationships with local partners to maintain operational resilience in this uncertain landscape.
Recommendations for Indian Businesses and Security
Enhancing Border Security
The instability has exposed vulnerabilities along the India-Bangladesh border, necessitating immediate improvements. Investing in advanced technologies like biometric scanners and high-resolution surveillance systems is essential. Increasing border patrols and deploying specialised rapid response units will enhance security and deter illegal activities. Additionally, fostering intelligence-sharing agreements with Bangladeshi authorities and regional partners will provide timely insights and facilitate more effective border management.
Strengthening counter-terrorism measures
The potential escalation of terrorism due to the unrest underscores the need for reinforced strategies. Enhancing regional cooperation through joint operations and intelligence exchanges will be crucial in addressing this threat. Upgrading surveillance infrastructure, including advanced monitoring systems at key locations, will aid in the early detection of extremist activities. Regular threat assessments and preparedness drills will ensure that security measures remain robust and responsive.
Mitigating Economic Risks
The disruption caused by the unrest presents significant challenges. Diversifying supply chains and establishing secondary procurement routes will help reduce reliance on Bangladeshi sources and minimise trade disruptions. Adjusting investment strategies and exploring opportunities in more stable markets can safeguard financial interests. Continuous monitoring of political developments and adapting risk management strategies will enhance business resilience.
Engaging with Local Partners
Establishing strong relationships with local entities in Bangladesh is vital for managing risks effectively. These partnerships offer valuable on-the-ground insights and facilitate smoother operations despite the unrest. Collaborating with local partners helps businesses access essential local information, mitigate operational disruptions, and maintain continuity in a volatile environment.
By implementing these interconnected strategies, businesses and security professionals can better manage the risks associated with the unrest and ensure operational resilience.
Conclusion
The unrest in Bangladesh has triggered significant security and economic challenges for India. On the security front, the rising risks of illegal immigration and potential terrorism necessitate immediate enhancements in border security and counterterrorism efforts.
This involves adopting advanced technologies, improving surveillance, and strengthening regional cooperation. Economically, trade and investment disruptions highlight the need for businesses to diversify their supply chains and investment strategies. Proactive measures, such as exploring stable markets and fostering local partnerships, are essential to navigate these challenges.
As the situation evolves, a proactive and adaptable approach will be key.
By integrating robust security measures with resilient economic strategies, Indian businesses and security professionals can manage risks effectively and ensure operational stability.
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